Regression Toward The Mean

Just a little something regarding a concept a lot of alternative medicine practitioners and their faithful never seem able to grasp.

Human beings are in their natural state, healthy.  You feel good, you work well, nothing is wrong.  Then, you get sick.  Maybe you develop a cough.  After a little while of having the symptoms of a cough, you'll probably do something about it.  Maybe you'll take some conventional medicine (a cough tablet), maybe you'll take a homeopathic remedy, and maybe you'll do nothing.  In all cases, the end result is the same - you get over your illness as the body naturally deals with the problem.  You end up feeling healthy again.  So in those three cases, this is what's happening:

Conventional Medicine: The cough tablet soothes your throat, and perhaps suppresses the cough itself.  You feel okay, and while the cough tablet is working, your body is healing itself.  If you're lucky, by the time the tablet wears off your cough will be done with.  You're grateful for the cough tablet for making you feel better during that time.

Homeopathic Remedy:  You drink a tiny amount of water, which via the placebo effect may trick you into believing your cough is a bit better.  Gradually, your cough gets better on its own.  You're grateful for the remedy 'curing' your cough.

Nothing:  You cough for a while and then it goes away.  You didn't take anything, and so you aren't grateful for the assistance of anything.

Now, try substituting influenza for cough.  It's generally a much more serious deal, with bed rest and lots of water and sleep, and no exertion.  You'll be recommended to take the bed rest and water and not exert yourself no matter who you ask, so that's a constant.  If you take conventional medicine, it'll be something to lower your fever (like aspirin), and otherwise mask your symptoms.  You'll be more comfortable while getting over your flu.  If you take a homeopathic remedy, the placebo effect might make you feel better, but your fever will stay the same, since homeopathic remedies are just water.  You'll feel worse, guaranteed, than if you took something conventional.  Your flu will eventually subside anyway, and you'll thank your homeopathic remedy for 'curing' you.  If you took nothing, you'll keep your fever and eventually the influenza will end.

So the end result is that when you take something at the height of an illness, you'll be thankful for it when the illness subsides, and since naturally taking something at the height of an illness means it will only get lower from there, a homeopathic remedy is guaranteed the same effect as anything else.  The danger comes when, armed with this faith in homeopathic remedies from personal experience curing temporary problems, you use them to combat serious things.